Tomorrow, Sunday, October 4, the Valkyries host the Aces at Chase Center for Game 1 of the WNBA semifinals. Tipoff is at 1 p.m. Pacific. They have everything going for them - a home game and a chance to take the series lead. But there is a crucial problem: they lost all three regular-season meetings with the Aces.
I believe it’s possible for the Valkyries to win this game. But it needs to switch the game plan from defense & threes to defense & threes & landing twos (emphasis on the latter!)
The Valkyries aren’t lacking in the number of shots taken. It’s that the Aces got *more* out of theirs, especially inside the arc. The Valkyries need better finishes of their own and a defense that makes life harder for the whole Aces offense. That starts with a few things worth watching from the opening quarter.
we can't just shoot threes
The first thing I’d want to see Sunday is the Valkyries using the threat of a three to get something closer to the basket. When a defender runs out at a shooter, drive past them. When a teammate cuts into space, find them. Keep making the Aces defend after they take away the first shot.
There’s a reason for that. In the May 31 loss at Chase, the Valkyries made 16 threes and still lost by 10. They also went 9-for-39 on twos. Which is a lot to ask those threes to make up for.
Across all three meetings, both teams made 32 threes. Thirty of the Aces’ 34-point overall advantage came from two-point baskets. That gap includes the Valkyries’ misses AND the Aces’ makes, so it needs work at both ends. Better shots for the Valkyries; tougher ones for the Aces.
The threes should absolutely stay; however, the Valkyries just need another way to get a basket when they aren’t falling.
The total score in their matchups during the 2026 regular season was Vegas 267, Golden State 233. Two-pointers explain 30 of that 34-point gap.
a’ja cannot be the entire defensive plan
The equal three-point totals hide the fact that the Aces needed fewer attempts to get there. Jackie Young alone made 14 of 23 across the three games. Maybe, hopefully, she won’t shoot that well again. I would prefer not to spend Sunday depending on it.
Helping on A’ja Wilson has to come with a plan for the next pass. If an extra defender goes to Wilson, who is getting back to Young or Chelsea Gray? The Valkyries have to make those decisions without giving up good shots somewhere else. The box scores don’t tell us exactly which coverage to use, but they make it pretty clear that containing one scorer won’t be enough.
why I think they can win Sunday
Even during the three losses, the Valkyries took more shots, grabbed more offensive rebounds and committed fewer turnovers than the Aces. They were giving themselves chances. Better finishing and a few more stops could make those extra chances matter a lot more.
For one thing, the sweep was over by June 21. The Valkyries went 22–5 for the rest of the regular season. That doesn’t prove the Aces problem is fixed; those wins came against other opponents. But treating the May and June results as the final word on this team leaves out a lot of basketball.
In fact, we were really close to winning in one of the three games. On June 6, the Valkyries led 78–77 with 38 seconds left. But Young hit a final pull-up three and the Aces eventually won by five. The Valkyries did not need to become a different team to win that game, but the team needed to have gotten through the last few possessions.
So I see Game 1 as a real opportunity. The 0–3 record could give the Aces the confidence that the pattern will hold, but they shouldn't discount the Valkyries' Ballhalla advantage.